Was the collapse of the USSR in the late 1980’s-1991 highly probable? Why or why not? Explain carefully.

To some students and analysts of the Soviet Union, its collapse was probable and, to a large extent, inevitable. To others, it was highly improbable. The difference between the two schools of thought centers on the debates during the 1970s and 1980s as to whether the actual strength of the Soviet Union's economy, the burden on that economy of exorbitant spending on its armed forces, and the ruthlessness of the empire's internal security apparatus were all being accurately gauged. The Soviet Union was viewed by many as a powerful monolith whose military power and hold on its people, as well as on the nations it occupied in Eastern and Central Europe, was so strong as to preclude the center's collapse. However, while it fielded enormous military forces of considerable power, the Soviet Union's economy was far more precarious than many American analysts estimated. Additionally, the increasing ability of citizens of Soviet-occupied and satellite nations to compare their economic situations and cultures with those of the far more prosperous West, especially the stark contrast between East and West Germany, reflected very poorly on the Soviet Union.
Certainly, in retrospect, the collapse of the Soviet Union was probable; the fragility of its economy, however, was insufficiently appreciated by many in the West, so the number of analysts and others who predicted the collapse was far fewer than should have been the case.