It is impossible to say whether hostilities will cease in Afghanistan, but we can look at some of the barriers to peace and speculate accordingly. There are three groups operating in Afghanistan, each with its own objectives.
The Government of National Unity under President Ashraf Ghani wants to bring all Afghans under the central government in Kabul, which would end the civil war and work to mitigate social and religious differences among Afghan citizens.
The Taliban has stated that unity is possible, but not until American forces are out of the country.
The United States wants to maintain a military presence until it can be assured that Afghanistan will never again be the base for terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda.
As of March, 2018, the process for peace would be a five-year period that would probably involve all three parties meeting certain conditions.
The central government would set aside a specific number of provincial government positions for Taliban leaders to ensure Taliban interests are represented in Kabul.
In exchange, the Taliban would begin to draw down its military wing until it became a political party instead of an opposition regime.
As the changes began inside the Afghan government and the Taliban made good on its promise to demilitarize, the US military would withdraw to be replaced with NATO peacekeepers, who would eventually be removed completely.
The Taliban has erected a giant hurdle by saying that unity will never be an option as long as American soldiers remain on Afghan soil. Many see the Taliban walking back this position, but only if there is no risk of losing face.
https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/afghanistan-in-2017-achievements-and-challenges/
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Will the war in Afghanistan ever end?
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